Playoffs NFL week 18

Search

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
INV 23-21 +$2616.00
Action 35-27 +$5041.00
Total 58-48 +7657.00



myline for this weeks games


.............full year..........last 8 wks .........last 4
DET
DAL............-7....................-8.................-10

AZ
CAR..............PK..................-5...................-10.5

bal
PITT...............-4....................-8.................-10

cinn......................................-6....................-5
IND..................-5

i do this every year in the playoffs to see different views. This tell a story to any capper....

stuff that stand out.... Last 4 weeks. Pit only has 100 penalties,dal is +76 in line off , car is + 73 in line off

good od stuff to think about.

Ace
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
I read A lot of Articles and some are worth keeping...the Plan is to show the Ones that can help your capping


HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?


Submitted by ron on Wed, 2010-01-06 02:00

"COACH'S CORNER"
With Two-Time AFC Coach of the Year RON MEYER!

HOW IMPORTANT IS COACHING IN THE WILDCARD ROUND?

I've been Coach of the Year in the AFC two times. Once with the Indianapolis Colts. Once with the New England Patriots (both of whom are in the playoffs again this year). I've studied playoff football for as long as I can remember. In my view, coaching matters more in THIS round from the handicapping perspective than at any other time in the playoffs.

Why is that?

You generally have very evenly matched teams playing in the Wildcard round. The best Wildcard teams are often BETTER than the divisional champions they're facing on the road. You see that perception in Las Vegas this week. Home field advantage is worth three points:

  • Arizona is laying less than three to Green Bay, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard Green Bay is better than NFC West champion Arizona.
  • Cincinnati is laying less than three to the NY Jets, meaning there's a perception that Wildcard New York is better than AFC North champion Cincinnati.
  • New England is laying exactly three points to Baltimore, meaning those teams are considered even.
  • Dallas opened at -1½ vs. Philadelphia, meaning that oddsmakers thought the market perceived Philadelphia as better...though early money pounded Dallas all the way up to -4.
Needless to say, if nobody's more than a four point favorite in games played on their home fields, then the teams are seen as even!

Coaches are often a "tie breaker" in close games. Sometimes it's for the better, as good coaches find a way to win. Sometimes it's for the worse, as coaches who are inexperienced in playoff action, or who rely too much on their team's talent make mistakes that cause their team to lose.

I'm not going to get too specific in what I think about the eight coaches on the sidelines this week. My analysis will play a big role, probably the BIGGEST role in determining my selections for clients. I can't give that information away for free! I can tell you the general things I look at when evaluating NFL coaches in January.

  • Have they been there before? Experience helps a lot when it comes to coaching in the playoffs. You have to make some mistakes before you get it right. Veterans generally know what mistakes to avoid. How many of this week's head coaches, as well as the four bye teams, have been in this position before? Be very careful asking new coaches to thrive. Don't be shocked when veterans do.
  • Have they won before? Some coaches just hit a wall when it comes to the playoffs. Marty Schottenheimer was like that. His approach worked great during the regular season. He just didn't have an extra gear in the playoffs. In fact, he's often go BACK a gear and play so conservatively that it kept opponents in the game. Look up each guy's career playoff record. Ideally, you should know their ATS records too. Guys who are poor against Vegas expectations should be avoided, particularly as favorites.
  • Do they have a reputation for aggression, or a reputation for conservatism? Aggression wins playoff games. Conservatism may help you pull one upset if you're an underdog catching some breaks, but generally keeps you from advancing more than one round. The last thing you want to do in the playoffs is lay points with a conservative coach.
  • How has his team executed the fundamentals? Teams with poor turnover differentials can be in real trouble in the postseason because every mistake is so costly. Teams that get called for a lot of offensive penalties are in trouble because every yard matters so much in a short game that determines your fate. Some coaches are sticklers for execution. Others let their guys play and live with the mistakes. The sticklers are better bets, particularly when getting points from the more lenient coaches.
I don't want you to get the idea that nothing else matters besides coaching. A great coach can't make an inexperienced quarterback an immediate star. A bad coach may not do enough to derail his Hall of Fame bound quarterback. Ideally you want a mix of a great coach with a great team. Do we have that this year? It's tough to say because there are several serious Super Bowl contenders. I strongly believe that coaching quality will end up serving as the tie-breaker which determines who advances week by week, and who will lift the trophy over their heads a few weeks from now.
 

Member
Joined
Jun 14, 2006
Messages
53,716
Tokens
Ace.Ace...........BOL this week end...........you and your family have a great and successful New Year.........thank you for all your time, effort and thoughts this past year..........indy
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Ace.Ace...........BOL this week end...........you and your family have a great and successful New Year.........thank you for all your time, effort and thoughts this past year..........indy


What at you doing tonight my friend .......back at you...be safe....dinner with wife few people over to watch the ball drop....some day I'm going to New York to see it happen...Ace
 

New member
Joined
Oct 9, 2014
Messages
67
Tokens
What at you doing tonight my friend .......back at you...be safe....dinner with wife few people over to watch the ball drop....some day I'm going to New York to see it happen...Ace

You in NY? NY would eat you up alive. Stick to picking your 98% favorites, seems to be working for you. Happy New Year.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
19,471
Tokens
Wide receiver A.J. Green went back to the practice field Thursday morning for the first time he’s worked since taking a shot to the head after his fumble late in Sunday night’s game in Pittsburgh, but he still has hoops to jump through in the NFL's concussion protocol.
Green is still in the protocol, but went through warmups, stretching and installation of the offense. He'll be seen by a neurologist Friday morning, where he's hopefully cleared for a full practice on Friday. Then he'll be seen by an indpendent doctor Saturday in an effort to get cleared for Sunday’s Wild Card Game (1 p.m.-Cincinnati’s Channel 12) in Indianapolis.


popcorn-eatinggif

 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Wide receiver A.J. Green went back to the practice field Thursday morning for the first time he’s worked since taking a shot to the head after his fumble late in Sunday night’s game in Pittsburgh, but he still has hoops to jump through in the NFL's concussion protocol.
Green is still in the protocol, but went through warmups, stretching and installation of the offense. He'll be seen by a neurologist Friday morning, where he's hopefully cleared for a full practice on Friday. Then he'll be seen by an indpendent doctor Saturday in an effort to get cleared for Sunday’s Wild Card Game (1 p.m.-Cincinnati’s Channel 12) in Indianapolis.


popcorn-eatinggif


69% still on pit. But money in NY AND CHI IS ON BALT. Can pit win without him....hmmmm.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
19,471
Tokens
69% still on pit. But money in NY AND CHI IS ON BALT. Can pit win without him....hmmmm.

Pitt can win without Bell but cover :think2: it should be another AFC North slug fest down to the final whistle

but can the Bengals win without A.J. :think2: different game from week 7
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Pitt can win without Bell but cover :think2: it should be another AFC North slug fest down to the final whistle

but can the Bengals win without A.J. :think2: different game from week 7


Line has not moved on Cin so you wonder his value. Will see at game time
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Where do you go to see that money in coming in on Balt in NY, CHI, ect?


I know A few books...that's the only way to know. Big guy In NY and a smaller guy in chi.....I don't ask them all the time...but I love it when they match.
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
[h=1]HOW SHARPS ARE BETTING THE NFL WILDCARD GAMES[/h]


ARIZONA CARDINALS at CAROLINA PANTHERS (4:20 ET Saturday on ESPN)
The game opened Carolina -4 on the assumption that Drew Stanton would probably be able to come back and play for Arizona. It shot all the way up to Carolina -6.5 when it became clear that Ryan Lindley was the much more likely quarterback for the visiting Cards. Lindley has really struggled the past two weeks against good defenses…and he’s facing another good defense here. Based on the way the market usually works when a 6.5 is widely available for a sustained period, you can assume that sharp Arizona money would come in fairly hard at +7 if the public drives the line higher. That may not happen though, because squares may not be interested in laying points with a “losing” team.
The Over/Under has dropped from a low 39 to an even lower 37.5. That’s because of the quarterback situation in Arizona, and the high percentage forecast that it will be raining during the game. Lindley would have had trouble passing in ideal conditions! This will be the least bet NFL game of the weekend because of its low marquee value, early starting time relative to the field, and anticipation of a defensive struggle (the public loves offense).

BALTIMORE RAVENS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS (8:15 ET Saturday on NBC)
This will definitely be the showcase game of the first day, and second only in marquee value to the Dallas game on Sunday. It’s shaping up as a tug-of-war between Pittsburgh -3 and Baltimore +3.5. Sharps really like the Ravens when the hook is in play. Pittsburgh money from some sharp syndicates and squares comes in at the field goal. Hard to see how that changes between now and kickoff unless there’s some Baltimore money waiting to see what it can get before finally committing.
The Over/Under has dropped two points from 47 to 45. The quants didn’t have it as high as the oddsmakers on the opener. And, it looks like game night weather will be inhibiting offenses. The current forecast is for low 40’s, rain, and sustained winds around 10-12 mph. These teams have historically played defensive battles…but this year’s Pittsburgh team is a bit more wide-open than in the past.

CINCINNATI BENGALS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1:05 ET Sunday on CBS)
Both of Sunday’s games will be indoors, so no weather concerns. Sharps liked Cincinnati +4 on the opener. We’re now seeing a potential tug-of-war between Cincinnati +3.5 and Indianapolis -3. If the public bets Indianapolis as the short home favorite on game day, that tug-of-war is likely to hold strong until kickoff. Sharps are no longer in love with the Colts vs. playoff caliber opposition. And, they’re okay with taking Andy Dalton as an underdog…but not a favorite (which won’t be in play this postseason). So, sharps are on the Bengals strong at +4, and with confidence at +3.5. The percentages switch on the solid three, which is what brings in Colts money. Nothing happening yet on the Over/Under of 48.

DETROIT LIONS at DALLAS COWBOYS (4:40 ET Sunday on FOX)
Dallas opened at -6, and was immediately bet up. Sharps preferring the Cowboys knew they wouldn’t see anything better than that. Many Wise Guys are impressed with the Cowboys offensive balance this season. Combine those bettors with those who know about Matthew Stafford’s horrible road record vs. good teams…and there was a lot of interest in the Cowboys on the six. We’re now looking at a possible tug-of-war between Dallas -6.5 and Detroit +7. Sharp underdog money does start to come in when the key number of seven is breached. Those who aren’t sold on Tony Romo are happy to take a full TD against him. Nothing on the total yet here either. Game day moves in Indy and Dallas on the Over/Under will probably be driven by squares. If the public pushes the games at least a point higher “rooting” for offense, we’d probably see some buy back from the quants on Under those higher totals.
 

Member
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
19,471
Tokens
Good Luck this weekend Ace



got a case of Labatt Blue and a Bottle of Crown on the Bengals +3/ with a Colts fan figured one of us will need it next week

watching our team play in New England face)(*^%
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
One action play today
one investment play
one of those is a 411 play
also one PROP play

on sunday
one action, one investment, one 411 play
also two PROP BETS if one is stll alive

still tune
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Winner of the AFC. Pit $100.00 to win $1025.00


Pit -3.................$2000.00 -108 411 play
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
Good Luck this weekend Ace



got a case of Labatt Blue and a Bottle of Crown on the Bengals +3/ with a Colts fan figured one of us will need it next week

watching our team play in New England face)(*^%


could use that beer now.....
 

EX BOOKIE
Joined
Oct 20, 2003
Messages
20,715
Tokens
0-4 on the day -$2990.00
two losts as PROP PLAYS FOR $100 each

today 2 plays one PROP

ACE
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,887
Messages
13,574,744
Members
100,882
Latest member
topbettor24
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com